HM2 Tip – Hold’em Hole Cards Tool (Guest Blogger)

That sick beat busting you after a night-long run-good cements its way into your memory; the repetition of a poor (-EV) play thrown among the others is hard to pin down. Holdem Manager 2's 'Hold'em Hole Cards' tool is invaluable in equipping HM2 users with the means to make targeted adjustments to eliminate chip-spewing leaks from their game, fine-tune hand strategies and maximize profitability.

Successful players place great focus on narrowing down opponents' ranges at the table, the possibilities of opponents holding said cards on any particular board and making reasoned decisions based on opponents' playing decisions. It is only post-game that we too can dissect our own hand decisions, and with HM2 critically assess on the basis of long-term outcomes whether we are making correct plays in terms of expected value (EV), with luck (variance) struck from the brain-numbing equation.

The tool is a crucial first base for anyone wishing to undertake database analysis and those seeking to refine their online game. When used effectively, the Hold'em Hole Cards tool can be manipulated to establish optimum plays for each possible situation. This – my first blog entry – examines how HM2's Hold'em Hole Cards tool can be used in conjunction with other HM2 features to scrutinize hand decisions, with a particular focus on tournament play.

So, to the basics: Where to find the Hold'em Hole Cards Tool.

From the main screen, click on the Reports tab, and select the desired samples for analysis:

After selecting 'All' cards, click the Holdem Manager Hold'em Cards tool button, highlighted below.

Below is the grid for a volunteered sample of hands taken from a month of play in low stakes tournaments. The player is classified by HM2 as a loose-aggressive player, based on a modest sample of around 7,500 hands (26 VPIP; 16 PFR; 8.2 3-Bet, for those who share my penchant for HUD stats).

For those unfamiliar with the tool, on first arriving on the interface screen it is immediately apparent which hands generate the greatest return on chips invested (shown in dark green, and unprofitable hands displayed in red) with greater detail available on mouse-over. Highly-profitable hands unsurprisingly will commonly feature the 'top 10' poker hands – generally accepted (in no particular order) to be AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs, AKo, AQs, AJs and KQs. This view enables us to see – of the hands you consider to be in your playing range – which require the most attention.

In the case of our sample, KQ and AJ are noteworthy losing hands for our 'Hero'.

This second display allows us to see our opening ranges displayed accurately. By selecting 'Hand Count' from the top-left drop-down box and selecting 'Raise Unopened' from the Filters we can see from the selected sample: the range of hands that have been opened with (raised), and how frequently (on mouse-over). The next tick box, 'raise limper(s)' provides details on your range when opponents acting before you have flat called. Other options show your 3-betting range, 4-betting range, and with what cards you have called such bets.

With the basic functions covered, we can begin…

Revert the selection back to 'all' to restore the initial view.

To probe deeper into your pre-flop psyche, we can request situation-specific information. We can find out, for instance, how many times we have opened the pot with Aces instead of flat-calling (by switching between the betting filters). By selecting or deselecting the specific positions listed, we can establish in what position we generally make either decision.

Now, this is where the findings can begin to be applied to improve your game.

For simplicity, I've chosen pocket aces as an initial example. Say we want to find out whether at our stake level limping Aces from early position is +EV as opposed to early position open raising. We can deselect all positions with the exception of 'early' from the pop-up menu and compare the combined average return from samples 'raised unopened'+'raise limper(s)'+'3-bet', subtracted from the average profit of action 'all' to achieve samples for when the hand was limped.

In our test sample, Hero was dealt Aces in early position a total of 10 times, when raising 6 of these times the return was meager 14 BBs, 2.3BBs on average, compared with a total 63BBs gained from just 4 cases in which our hero limped in early position, showing that – agonizing as it may be – flat calling aces from early position, seemingly is the optimum play against players at this low-stakes level.

Taking other, less exceptional hands, and a greater sample size, users can identify with greater certainty – for a selected hand, say 67 suited – what is generally the most profitable play pre-flop and from what positions, indeed if the hand should be in your range in a certain position at all. Combined with other considerations at the table – relative stack sizes, no. of opponents and opponents' HUD stats, etc., we are able to begin rationalizing our pre-flop decisions to ensure they are +EV on the basis of past profitability and in a way that is bespoke both to the opponents at your buy-in level and your adopted image at the table.

Samples used can be refined by using filters found on the primary screen, under the 'More Reports' option (as shown below) and the 'More Filters' tab, to the right of this drop-down box.

With every option covered, the list of possibilities with HM2 is truly endless. For this example, I have selected Tournament Stack Size from the More Reports menu.

Applying the similar methodology as was used in the case of pocket aces, we can gain a decent understanding of what plays should (and shouldn't) be made with other pocket pairs, and in what positions. By filtering our results by effective stack, and returning to the Hold'em Hole Cards tool, we can see through the Hold'em Hole Cards grid whether flat-calling low pocket pairs from early position (an ill-advised play in many poker books, particularly in late-game play) is generally profitable, based on the odds of hitting a set being 1 in 8, and when you should begin to start eliminating low pocket pairs from your range based on your and opponents' stack sizes.

Long-term users of Holdem Manager will benefit from greater hand samples opening up more accurate results from such analysis. Larger samples also open up other options that can be employed to aid players in establishing ranges for opponents at the table. Users with large sample sizes can for instance instead choose the hand samples of an opponent (as shown below). In doing so, we can receive valuable insight into our opponents' playing limitations, in terms of the cards they open raise and go to showdown with, the cards they open raise with limpers present; and what range you can expect to be up against when considering calling or re-raising following a 3-bet.

Begin by selecting the 'Opponents' tab and selecting a 'Target' from this screen, as shown below.

Further, the tool is not limited to pre-flop play analysis. By modifying the samples used from the primary screen by using the 'More Filters' menu, it is possible to scrutinize the profitability of post-flop hand play based on card-, action- and draw-specific scenarios. Shown below is a filter applied to limit results to situations where the Hero flopped Top Pair Top Kicker (TPTK) on draw-heavy boards. By reviewing how profitable the outcome is of these scenarios – by assessing profitability in the Hold'em Hole Cards tool – we can establish areas in a player's game that requires focus.

Of course, the Holdem Hole Cards tool should be used in conjunction with other HM2 tools such as Holdem Manager's Replayer, and add-ons such as Leak Buster, in order to drill down into the reasoning for a loss-making play, and identify where more value could feasibly have been extracted – the subject of entries to come.

Stay tuned…